My day job is CA state politics and policy but often I’m asked for my view of federal politics. Usually I decline to answer but occasionally it can be fun to research a question. Most recently I’ve been asked about Gavin Newsom’s presidential prospects. According to many polls, Newsom, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg are the current front-runners for the Democratic nomination. But if past is prologue, no front-runner today is likely to be the nominee.
Presently we are 33 months from the November 2028 presidential election. Below is a chart created by Gemini Pro commencing with the 1972 presidential election that compares Democratic front-runners 33 months before the election with the Democratic nominee. Of the nine non-incumbent nominees, only two were leading 33 months before the election.
To older people like me who were around for those elections, today’s front-runners look more like Ed Muskie, Henry Jackson and Mario Cuomo than George McGovern, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. But who knows! I just thought it was interesting. Now, back to my day job.
