I regularly ride SF Muni, which is not only a great way to get around town but also at times a wonderful way to interact with my fellow residents. Yesterday I rode the 22 and J routes from the north side of town to Noe Valley (in search of Wild California Salmon — no luck) and then returned on the 24 route. Those are long rides and along the way, I asked some fellow riders about the governor’s race. The only names they recognized were Tom Steyer, whose campaign has spent over $100 million, and former TV host Steve Hilton. None had heard of Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, Katie Porter, or Chad Bianco.
My survey was not scientific but as Seema Mehta and Nicole Nixon of the LA Times observed in their recent article, the race is “wildly unpredictable” because Californians are “just beginning to pay attention to the campaign.” Separately, the authors also reported that a rally for Becerra was attended primarily by labor groups, who are actively seeking a replacement for Eric Swalwell, the candidate previously endorsed by the state’s establishment before he left the race.
The true campaign begins tomorrow with the first of several debates. With ballots not dropping until May 4 and voters having until June 2 to vote, most voters will not engage until mid-May. From my (biased, pro-Mahan) perspective, the primary contest is between Steyer and Mahan, the only two candidates with significant financial backing. While Xavier Becerra may receive an injection of labor union funds, those groups are currently split and prioritizing money for ballot measures. A Republican, likely Hilton, will secure a spot in the general election against Mahan or Steyer but ultimately fail because even Abe Lincoln could not win in Trump-deranged California with an “R” after his name. Either way, tune in tomorrow and let the games begin!
