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Dear Legislators,

The Legislative Analyst’s Office is filled with talented people who occasionally take on impossible tasks. Take LAO’s recent Fiscal Outlook for Schools in which it boldly predicts that “capital gains revenue [will be] strong in 2022‑23.” I can’t predict the stock market next week much less next year but unlike the state I’m not depending on it to finance schools that require stable annual funding. If I did, I’d keep loads of cash on hand. That’s because the annual performance of stock markets looks like this:

California needs at least $100 billion of reserves. Don’t take our word for it. See page 245 of the Governor’s Budget:

November 1 marked the commencement of the Open Enrollment period during which residents can purchase health insurance for the upcoming year and another opportunity to praise Covered California, the state’s healthcare exchange that’s an exemplar of government services well provided. At a time when even the New York Times is cynical about blue state performance, Covered CA is a reminder that California’s government can do its job well.

If ever you needed a reminder that our nation has always been a confederation of diverse states united only when facing a common enemy, re-read Democracy In America, Alexis de Tocqueville’s 1835 masterpiece.

When it reported a deficit last year, San Francisco Unified School District blamed Special Education. This year, SFUSD is blaming declining enrollment. Not being blamed is the real culprit.

From January through June last year, the California Legislature held hearings about a proposed budget for the 2021-22 fiscal year that allocated the majority of $300 billion of spending to healthcare corporations and government employees who — during that very same period — made political donations to lawmakers that weren’t disclosed until July 31, a month after the budget had been signed into law.

This year California will devote more than $120 billion to Medi-Cal, the state’s version of Medicaid that serves more than one of every three residents.

In traditional philanthropy there’s likely a correlation between wealth and impact but that’s less the case with political philanthropy where steadfastness is more important. That’s because the path to political change is steep and narrow. To change any of California’s 29 codes of law, a legislator must gain the agreement of 61 other legislators, each of whom has their own priorities. What matters in that world are seniority, committee assignments and bank balances, and what legislators in that world need are supporters who are always there for them. That’s one reason we have 18 chapters, each of which is among the largest and most steadfast donors to legislators.

Dear Legislators,

We are pleased that 94% of Californians now have health coverage. We’d love to see that figure rise to 100%. Multi-payer universal coverage systems such as those that dominate continental Europe and towards which California is marching can work extremely well. But one big difference is that European systems do a better job of controlling costs and utilization. That’s one reason the US devotes so much more of its GDP to health spending without getting much better health in exchange, and also why some enterprises — including providers doing business with the state who make political donations — are so profitable.

Recently a journalist concluded “the California Dream is dying.”